Where to Find a Daily Risk-On vs Risk-Off Market Signal

A daily binary classification of equity market conditions, risk-off or risk-on, published as point-in-time data by Alphanume.

Plenty of strategies work beautifully in calm markets and fall apart in stress. The fix is usually a regime filter: a simple signal that tells you whether the market is in a defensive state so you can size down, hedge, or step aside. The trouble is that most regime indicators are either proprietary black boxes or fragile, hand-rolled rules on VIX levels.

Alphanume publishes a clean, daily regime signal as the S&P 500 Risk Regime dataset.

What the dataset is

The S&P 500 Risk Regime is a daily binary classification of equity market conditions: risk-off (coded 1) versus risk-on (coded 0). It is derived from forward-looking implied volatility metrics, updated each trading day at 10:10 AM ET, and fixed once published. Because the value is locked in after publication, the historical series is honest for backtesting and does not silently rewrite itself.

What fields you get

• date: the session the classification applies to
• risk_regime: 1 for risk-off, 0 for risk-on

What you can do with it

• Disable or de-risk strategies during risk-off regimes.
• Scale position sizing dynamically with the regime.
• Allocate across strategies depending on the state of the market.
• Segment backtests into bull versus stress periods to see where your edge really comes from.

How to access it

The signal is on the free tier as a rolling 30-day delayed window. One call returns the latest classification:

curl "https://api.alphanume.com/v1/sp500-risk-regime?api_key=alp_your_key"

Grab a free Alphanume API key, read the API documentation, or explore it on Alphanume to see the current regime.

Why a clean regime signal is hard to source

Most regime indicators are either proprietary black boxes you cannot inspect or fragile hand-rolled rules on a single volatility level that break the moment market structure shifts. Neither is a good foundation for a systematic process, because you cannot reason about why the signal fired or trust that the historical series is consistent.

The S&P 500 Risk Regime is a single, transparent daily classification derived from forward-looking implied volatility metrics. It is fixed once published, so the value for any past date is exactly what was available that morning. That stability is what lets you fold it into a backtest as an honest overlay rather than a curve-fit.

Frequently asked questions

What does the risk regime signal output?

A single daily value: risk_regime is 1 for risk-off and 0 for risk-on. It is a binary classification of equity market conditions, updated each trading day at 10:10 AM ET.

How is the regime determined?

It is derived from forward-looking implied volatility metrics and is fixed once published, so the historical series does not silently rewrite itself.

Is the signal free?

Yes, on the free tier as a rolling 30-day delayed window. Pro raises the rate limit to 600 requests per minute and removes the delay.

How would I use it in a strategy?

Common uses are disabling or de-risking strategies during risk-off regimes, scaling position size with the regime, and segmenting backtests into bull versus stress periods.

Does the historical value ever change?

No. Once a day's classification is published it is fixed, which is what makes the series reliable for backtesting.